Robert Mislavsky - Premature Predictions: Accurate Forecasters Are Not

Journal article

Robert Mislavsky, Celia Gaertig
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, vol. 153(1), 2024, pp. 159-170

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APA Click to copy
Mislavsky, R., & Gaertig, C. (2024). Premature Predictions: Accurate Forecasters Are Not Viewed as More Competent for Earlier Predictions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 153(1), 159–170. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001487

Chicago/Turabian Click to copy
Mislavsky, Robert, and Celia Gaertig. “Premature Predictions: Accurate Forecasters Are Not Viewed as More Competent for Earlier Predictions.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 153, no. 1 (2024): 159–170.

MLA Click to copy
Mislavsky, Robert, and Celia Gaertig. “Premature Predictions: Accurate Forecasters Are Not Viewed as More Competent for Earlier Predictions.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, vol. 153, no. 1, 2024, pp. 159–70, doi:10.1037/xge0001487.

BibTeX Click to copy

@article{robert2024a,
  title = {Premature Predictions: Accurate Forecasters Are Not Viewed as More Competent for Earlier Predictions},
  year = {2024},
  issue = {1},
  journal = {Journal of Experimental Psychology: General},
  pages = {159-170},
  volume = {153},
  doi = {10.1037/xge0001487},
  author = {Mislavsky, Robert and Gaertig, Celia}
}

How does the timing of a prediction influence how a forecaster is perceived? Many people believe that they will be seen as more competent if they make accurate predictions far in advance of an event. However, we find that forecasters are not seen as more competent – and are sometimes seen as less competent – when they make predictions far in advance of an event occurring. Furthermore, we find that this is because observers recognize that events far in the future are less knowable, suggesting that they may attribute accurate, but premature, forecasts more to luck than to skill. Forecasters would benefit from knowing this when considering making predictions. They are not penalized for waiting until more information is known but may lose credibility if they make a prediction too early.